7.1 million miles, 3 minor accidents: Waymo’s security knowledge seems to be good
Waymo on Wednesday launched new crash knowledge primarily based on the corporate’s first 7.1 million miles of absolutely driverless operations in Arizona and California. The information reveals that human-driven vehicles are greater than twice as prone to get right into a crash that’s reported to the police. And relying on the way you do the mathematics, human-driven vehicles are 4 to seven occasions extra prone to get into crashes that result in an damage.
By October 2023, driverless Waymo autos have had solely three crashes with accidents—two within the Phoenix space and one in San Francisco. Waymo says all three accidents have been minor. If those self same miles had been pushed by typical human drivers in the identical cities, we’d have anticipated round 13 damage crashes.
The brand new knowledge comes at a vital time for the self-driving business. In October, a lady was dragged about 20 feet beneath a automobile by Waymo’s predominant rival, Cruise. Since then, Cruise has lost its CEO, laid off 24 percent of its workforce, and suspended driverless operations nationwide.
Cruise’s implosion has left Waymo because the undisputed chief within the driverless taxi market. But it surely has additionally heightened public skepticism about self-driving know-how usually. So Waymo goes to should work laborious to persuade the general public that its know-how not solely has the potential to make the roads safer sooner or later, however is already doing so now.
The brand new knowledge offers Waymo contemporary ammunition to make that case. If Waymo can keep its glorious security document within the coming months and years, it’ll have a robust argument for continued growth no matter what occurs in the remainder of the business.
7 million miles, 3 accidents
Since their inception, Waymo autos have pushed 5.3 million driverless miles in Phoenix, 1.8 million driverless miles in San Francisco, and some thousand driverless miles in Los Angeles via the tip of October 2023. And through all these miles, there have been three crashes severe sufficient to trigger accidents:
- In July, a Waymo in Tempe, Arizona, braked to keep away from hitting a downed department, resulting in a three-car pileup. A Waymo passenger was not carrying a seatbelt (they have been sitting on the buckled seatbelt as a substitute) and sustained accidents that Waymo described as minor.
- In August, a Waymo at an intersection “started to proceed ahead” however then “slowed to a cease” and was hit from behind by an SUV. The SUV left the scene with out exchanging info, and a Waymo passenger reported minor accidents.
- In October, a Waymo automobile in Chandler, Arizona, was touring within the left lane when it detected one other automobile approaching from behind at excessive velocity. The Waymo tried to speed up to keep away from a collision however obtained hit from behind. Once more, there was an damage, however Waymo described it as minor.
The 2 Arizona accidents over 5.3 million miles works out to 0.38 accidents per million automobile miles. One San Francisco damage over 1.75 million miles equals 0.57 accidents per million automobile miles. An essential query is whether or not that’s kind of than you’d anticipate from a human-driven automobile.
After guaranteeing changes—together with the truth that driverless Waymo autos don’t journey on freeways—Waymo calculates that comparable human drivers reported 1.29 damage crashes per million miles in Phoenix and three.79 damage crashes per million miles in San Francisco. In different phrases, human drivers get into damage crashes 3 times as usually as Waymo within the Phoenix space and 6 occasions as usually in San Francisco.
Waymo argues that these figures really understate the hole as a result of human drivers do not report all crashes. Unbiased research have estimated that a few third of damage crashes go unreported. After adjusting for these and different reporting biases, Waymo estimates that human-driven autos really get into 5 occasions as many damage crashes in Phoenix and 9 occasions as many in San Francisco.
To assist consider the examine, I talked to David Zuby, the chief analysis officer on the Insurance coverage Institute for Freeway Security. The IIHS is a well-respected nonprofit that’s funded by the insurance coverage business, which has a robust curiosity in selling automotive security.
Whereas Zuby had some quibbles with some particulars of Waymo’s methodology, he was usually constructive concerning the examine. Zuby agrees with Waymo that human drivers underreport crashes relative to Waymo. But it surely’s laborious to estimate this underreporting fee with any precision. Finally, Zuby believes that the true fee of crashes for human-driven autos lies someplace between Waymo’s adjusted and unadjusted figures.