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Ask HN: How are quantum computing corporations getting cash?

Ask HN: How are quantum computing corporations getting cash?

2023-12-06 07:26:27

There isn’t any quantum computer currently that can function beyond a few rounds of computation before decoherence occurs, ending the ability to compute without error. All quantum computer projects are still in the research phase, and trying to overcome the decoherence issue. Until then, like fusion, it’s a purely research funded industry.

Same way that fusion power companies are making money: they don’t.

Everyone is sinking tons of money into these ventures with the hope that they succeed before their competitors, and get that sweet sweet first mover benefit.

They are dedicated high-risk investment vehicles.

Think of them as research centers in search of grants. People investing in them accept a short/medium/long term loss, betting that it will turn a large profit if it works (i.e. if one entity wins over the problem of noise).

High risk and reward.

That depends on the company, some are making money by doing research the same way universities do (by applying for grants from governments). Some are essentially selling hype (we’re building this cool thing, get in on the ground floor). Some are selling expertise in classical computing as consultancies, especially those focussed on optimization. Some are probably straight-up lying to people.

That’s “how are they funded”, whereas I think the poster’s question of “how are they making money” is more about “what’s the business / profit model”?

Thats kinda obvious I think. Either they build a quantum computer and make buckets of money, someone else builds a quantum computer and they make slightly smaller buckets of money, or no one builds a quantum computer and they fail.

The business model is raising VC money and using it to do R&D that will show results good enough to be able to raise more VC money…

Striking similarities to biotech.

The difference is of course that there are biotech applications. There won’t be any QC applications for decades to come.

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If you believe any company today doing QC stuff will earn money ever, you’re playing the really long game.

Hahaha! I agree that both are high risk, high reward. The difference is that biotech companies semi-regularly produce products that large numbers of people use and derive benefits from. Not saying that won’t happen with Quantum Computing, but QC has felt like was 10 years away for about 10 years now.

They are research organizations that hope to be bought by a larger company once they have something that works. It’s the same model as in biotech. Startups do the research to then get bought by the few giants who don’t do much research themselves. Almost none of the startups are even trying to become a real business.

Their business model is selling dreams of future profits to VCs. Or, if the VCs are knowledgeable enough, the business model is selling dreams of future profits to unsophisticated investors at a future IPO.

They’re not profitable. The business model will be selling machines to cryptographically adverse intelligence agencies and maybe some biotech companies if the quantum computers actually work.

I want to get into quantum computing, but I keep coming back to the idea that most of our problems are human problems, not quantum problems. At least with classical computers, we can build tools that help to solve the human problems. Eg: connecting people, facilitating better communication, sharing knowledge. With quantum computers, it’s not clear how you map a human problem to a problem that quantum computers would be good for, so I lose interest.

It’s a case of grift by continual fundraising on (mostly) false cybersecurity fears. There are no really useful quantum computers and there won’t be because it’s mostly a scam. Feel free to downvote me but if you search hard enough, past the marketing hype and billions continually poured into research you come to this truth.

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