AWS IPv4 Property Now Price $4.5 Billion
Three years in the past, I wrote a weblog titled “AWS and their Billions in IPv4 addresses “through which I estimated AWS owned about $2.5 billion price of IPv4 addresses. AWS has continued to develop extremely, and so has its IPv4 utilization. In reality, it’s grown a lot that it’ll quickly begin to cost prospects for IPv4 addresses! Sufficient purpose to test in once more, three years later, to see what AWS’ IPv4 property seems like in the present day.
Let’s first rapidly summarize what we discovered when looking at AWS’s IPv4 usage in 2020. First, in 2020, we noticed that the overall variety of IPv4 addresses we may attribute to AWS was simply over 100 Million (100,750,168). That’s the equal of simply over six /8 blocks.
Second, for enjoyable, we tried to place a quantity on it; again then, I used $25 per IP, bringing the estimated worth of their IPv4 property to Simply over $2.5 billion.
Third, AWS publishes their actively used IPv4 addresses in a JSON file. The JSON file contained references to roughly 53 Million IPv4 addresses. That meant they nonetheless had ~47 Million IPv4 addresses, or 47%, out there for future allocations. That’s fairly wholesome!
Okay, let’s take a look at the present knowledge. Now, three years later, what does the IPv4 property for AWS seem like? I used the identical scripts and strategies as three years in the past and located the next.
First, we observe that AWS at the moment owns 127,972,688 IPv4 addresses. Ie. nearly 128 million IPv4 addresses. That’s a rise of 27 million IPv4 addresses. In different phrases, AWS added the equal of 1.6 /8’s or 415 /16’s in three years!
Second, what’s it price? That is all the time difficult and only for enjoyable. Let’s first assume the identical $25 per IPv4 tackle we utilized in 2020.
127,972,688 ipv4 addresses x $25 per IP = $3,199,317,200.
So, with the rise of IPv4 addresses, the worth went as much as ~$3.2 Billion. That’s a $700 million improve since 2020.
Nevertheless, if we contemplate the rise in IPv4 costs over the previous couple of years, this quantity can be greater. Beneath is the overall worth of 127M IPv4 addresses at completely different market costs.
Whole variety of IPv4 addresses: 127,972,688
worth at $20 per IP: $2,559,453,760
worth at $25 per IP: $3,199,317,200
worth at $30 per IP: $3,839,180,640
worth at $35 per IP: $4,479,044,080
worth at $40 per IP: $5,118,907,520
worth at $50 per IP: $6,398,634,400
Primarily based on this data from ipv4.global, the typical worth for an IPv4 tackle is at the moment ~$35 {dollars}. With that estimate, we will decide the worth of AWS’s IPv4 property in the present day to about 4.5 Billion {dollars}. A rise of two Billion in comparison with three years in the past!
Thirdly, let’s evaluate the distinction between the IPv4 knowledge we discovered and what’s revealed within the JSON file AWS makes out there. Within the JSON in the present day, we depend about 73 million IPv4 addresses (72,817,397); three years in the past, that was 53 Million. So, a rise of 20 million in IPv4 addresses allotted to AWS providers.
Lastly, after we evaluate the ratio between what Amazon owns and what’s allotted to AWS in line with the JSON knowledge, we observe that about 57% (72817397 / 127972688) of the IPv4 addresses have been (publicly) allotted to AWS service. They might nonetheless have 43% out there for future use. That’s nearly the identical as three years in the past when it was 47%.
(Notice: that is an outsider’s perspective; we should always seemingly assume not every little thing is used for AWS).
A fast comparability between the outcomes from three years in the past and now reveals the next important new additions to AWS’ IPv4 property,
- Two new /11 allocations: 13.32.0.0/11 and 13.192.0.0/11. This complete 13/8 block was previously owned by Xerox.
(Notice: it seems AWS owned 13.32.0.0/12 already in 2020). - Two new /12 allocations: 13.224.0.0/12 (see above as properly). It seems they continued buying from that 13/8 block.
- I’m additionally seeing extra consolidation within the 16.0.0.0/8 block. AWS used to have fairly just a few /16 allocations from that block, which at the moment are consolidated into three /12 allocations: 16.16.0.0/12 16.48.0.0/12, and 16.112.0.0/12
- Lastly, the 63.176.0.0/12 allocation is new.
In August of this yr, AWS announced they may begin charging their prospects for IPv4 addresses as of 2024.
Efficient February 1, 2024 there can be a cost of $0.005 per IP per hour for all public IPv4 addresses, whether or not hooked up to a service or not (there may be already a cost for public IPv4 addresses you allocate in your account however don’t connect to an EC2 occasion).
That’s a complete of $43.80 per yr per IPv4 tackle; that’s a fairly hefty quantity! The rationale for that is outlined in the identical AWS weblog:
As you might know, IPv4 addresses are an more and more scarce useful resource and the fee to amass a single public IPv4 tackle has risen greater than 300% over the previous 5 years. This modification displays our personal prices and can be supposed to encourage you to be a bit extra frugal together with your use of public IPv4 addresses
The 300% value improve to amass an IPv4 tackle is fascinating and is considerably mirrored in our valuation calculation above (although we used a extra conservative quantity).
So, how a lot cash will AWS make from this new IPv4 cost? The numerous variable right here is what number of IP addresses are used at any given time by AWS prospects. Let’s discover just a few situations, beginning with a really conservative estimate, say 10% of what’s revealed of their IPv4 JSON is in use for a yr. That’s 7.3 Million IPv4 addresses x $43.80, nearly $320 Million a yr. At 25% utilization, that’s practically $800 Million a yr. And at 31% utilization, that’s a billion {dollars}!
Discover that I’m utilizing a reasonably conservative quantity right here, so it’s not unlikely for AWS to make between $500 Million to a Billion {dollars} a yr with this new cost!
You will discover the information I used for this evaluation on the hyperlink beneath. There, you’ll additionally discover all of the IPv4 prefixes and a quick abstract. https://gist.github.com/atoonk/d8bded9d1137b26b3c615ab614222afd
Comparable knowledge from 2020 may be found here.
PS. Let me know if somebody is aware of the LACNIC or AFRINIC AWS sources, as these should not included on this knowledge set.
On this article, we noticed how, during the last three years, AWS grew its IPv4 property with a further 27 million IP addresses to now proudly owning 128 Million IPv4 addresses. At a price of $35 per IPv4 tackle, the overall worth of AWS’ IPv4 property is ~4.5 Billion {dollars}. A rise of $2 billion in comparison with what we checked out three years in the past!
Concerning IPv4 capability planning, it looks as if the unallocated IPv4 tackle pool (outlined as not being within the AWS JSON) has remained secure, and fairly a little bit of IPv4 addresses can be found for future use.
All this shopping for of IPv4 addresses is pricey, and in response to the rise in IPv4 costs, AWS will quickly begin to cost its prospects for IPv4 utilization. Primarily based on my estimates, It’s not unlikely that AWS will generate between $500 million and $1 billion in further income with this new cost. Lengthy stay IPv4!
Cheers
Andree