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IFJ PAN Press Workplace

IFJ PAN Press Workplace

2023-06-16 13:13:03

14 June 2023

EurekAlert!: []

In house you’ll be able to see impending earthquakes. Not so actually, as within the above collage of pictures, however nonetheless clearly – within the modifications within the depth of cosmic rays recorded by observatories on the floor of our planet. (Supply: IFJ PAN/NASA/JSC)

There’s a clear statistical correlation between world seismic exercise and modifications
within the depth of cosmic radiation recorded on the floor of our planet, probably
serving to to foretell earthquakes. Surprisingly, it reveals a periodicity that escapes
unambiguous bodily interpretation.

Robust earthquakes normally lead to many human casualties and large materials losses. The size
of the tragedy could possibly be considerably lowered if we had the power to foretell the time and place of
such cataclysmic occasions. The CREDO mission, initiated in 2016 by the Institute of Nuclear Physics
of the Polish Academy of Sciences (IFJ PAN) in Cracow, makes an attempt to confirm the beforehand identified
speculation that earthquakes may probably be predicted by observing modifications in… cosmic radiation.
Statistical analyses have proven {that a} correlation between the 2 phenomena does certainly
exist, however manifests traits that nobody had anticipated.

The worldwide CREDO (Cosmic Ray Extraordinarily Distributed Observatory) mission is a digital cosmic
ray observatory, open to all, that collects and processes knowledge not solely from refined
scientific detectors, but additionally from numerous smaller detectors, amongst which the CMOS
sensors in smartphones are main the best way (to show a smartphone right into a cosmic ray detector, merely
set up the free CREDO Detector app). One in all CREDO’s primary duties is to watch world modifications
within the flux of secondary cosmic radiation reaching the floor of our planet. This radiation is
produced within the Earth’s stratosphere most intensely throughout the so-called Regener-Pfotzer most,
the place particles of main cosmic radiation collide with the gasoline molecules of our ambiance
and provoke cascades of secondary particles.

At first look, the thought that there’s a hyperlink between earthquakes and cosmic radiation, in its main
type reaching us primarily from the Solar and deep house, could seem unusual. Nevertheless, its bodily
foundations are absolutely rational
”, emphasises Dr. Piotr Homola (IFJ PAN and AstroCeNT CAMK
PAN), coordinator of CREDO and first writer of the article describing the invention within the Journal
of Atmospheric and Photo voltaic-Terrestrial Physics

The principle concept right here is the statement that eddy currents within the liquid core of our planet are accountable
for producing the Earth’s magnetic subject. This subject deflects the paths of charged particles of
main cosmic radiation. Thus, if giant earthquakes have been related to disturbances within the flows
of matter that drive the Earth’s dynamo, these disturbances would alter the magnetic subject, which in
flip would have an effect on the tracks of the particles of main cosmic radiation in a fashion that relies upon
on the dynamics of the disturbances inside our planet. Because of this, ground-based detectors ought to
see some modifications within the numbers of secondary cosmic ray particles detected.

CREDO physicists analysed cosmic ray depth knowledge from two stations of the Neutron Monitor Database
mission (collected during the last half-century) and the Pierre Auger Observatory (collected
since 2005). The selection of observatories was decided by the truth that they’re positioned on each
sides of the equator and use completely different detection strategies. The analyses included modifications in photo voltaic
exercise, as described within the database maintained by the Photo voltaic Influences Information Evaluation Centre.
Key info on Earth’s seismic exercise was in flip sourced from the U.S. Geological Survey

The analyses have been carried out utilizing a number of statistical strategies. In every case, for the interval studied,
a transparent correlation emerged between modifications within the depth of secondary cosmic radiation
and the summed magnitude of all earthquakes with magnitudes greater-than or equal to 4. Importantly,
this correlation solely turns into obvious when the cosmic ray knowledge are shifted 15 days ahead
relative to the seismic knowledge. That is excellent news, because it suggests the opportunity of detecting
upcoming earthquakes effectively prematurely.

Sadly, it isn’t clear from the analyses whether or not will probably be potential to pinpoint areas of
cataclysms. Correlations between modifications in cosmic ray depth and earthquakes should not obvious
in location-specific analyses. They solely seem when seismic exercise is taken into consideration on
a world scale. This truth could imply that in modifications in cosmic ray depth one can see a phenomenon
to which our planet is subjected as a complete.

Within the scientific world, it’s accepted {that a} discovery might be mentioned to have been made when the
statistical confidence degree of the corroborating knowledge reaches 5 sigma, or commonplace deviations.
For the noticed correlation, we obtained greater than six sigma, which implies an opportunity of much less
than one in a billion that the correlation is because of likelihood. We due to this fact have an excellent statistical
foundation for claiming that we’ve got found a really current phenomenon. The one query is, is it
actually the one we have been anticipating?
” wonders Dr. Homola.

Certainly, it seems that the worldwide nature of the noticed phenomenon and the 15-day advance in
seismic exercise evident in cosmic radiation should not the one intriguing puzzles related to the
discovery. A serious shock is the large-scale periodicity of the correlation – a phenomenon that no
one had anticipated. Analyses present that the correlation most happens each 10-11 years, a interval
much like the photo voltaic exercise cycle. Nevertheless, it doesn’t coincide in any respect with the utmost exercise
of our star!

Moreover, there are different widespread periodicities of unknown nature in each cosmic ray and seismic
knowledge. Examples embody periodic modifications in seismic exercise and the depth of secondary
cosmic radiation over a cycle equivalent to the Earth’s stellar day (equal to 24 hours minus
~236 seconds). Might it’s, then, that cosmic-seismic correlations are brought on by some issue reaching
us from outdoors the Photo voltaic System, able to concurrently producing radiation and seismic
results? Solely what standard bodily phenomenon may even qualitatively clarify the
obvious correlations?

The shortage of classical explanations for the noticed periodicities provokes consideration of the potential
position of different, much less standard phenomena. One in all these could possibly be the passage of the Earth
by way of a darkish matter stream modulated by the Solar and different large our bodies in our planetary
system. The Earth, with its giant magnetic subject, is an especially delicate particle detector, many instances
bigger than human-built detectors. It’s due to this fact affordable to permit for the likelihood that it
could reply to phenomena which are invisible to current measuring units.

See Also

Whatever the supply of the noticed periodicities, a very powerful factor at this stage of
the analysis is that we’ve got demonstrated a hyperlink between the cosmic radiation recorded on the
floor of our planet and its seismicity – and if there may be something we might be certain of, it’s that our
statement factors to thoroughly new and thrilling analysis alternatives
”, concludes Dr. Homola.



Dr. Piotr Homola

Institute of Nuclear Physics, Polish Academy of Sciences

tel.: +48 12 662 8341

electronic mail:

Scientific papers:

„Commentary of huge scale precursor correlations between cosmic rays and earthquakes with a periodicity much like the photo voltaic cycle”

P. Homola, V. Marchenko, A. Napolitano, R. Damian, R. Guzik, D. Alvarez-Castillo, S. Stuglik, O. Ruimi, O. Skorenok, J. Zamora-Saa, J.M. Vaquero, T. Wibig, M. Knap, Ok. Dziadkowiec, M. Karpiel, O. Sushchov, J.W. Mietelski, Ok. Gorzkiewicz, N. Zabari, Ok. Almeida Cheminant, B. Idźkowski, T. Bulik, G. Bhatta, N. Budnev, R. Kamiński, M.V. Medvedev, Ok. Kozak, O. Bar, Ł. Bibrzycki, M. Bielewicz, M. Frontczak, P. Kovacs, B. Łozowski, J. Miszczyk, M. Niedźwiecki, L. del Peral, M. Piekarczyk, M. D. Rodriguez Frias, Ok. Rzecki, Ok. Smelcerz, T. Sośnicki, J. Stasielak, A. A. Tursunov;

Journal of Atmospheric and Photo voltaic-Terrestrial Physics 2023, 247, 106068;



In house you’ll be able to see impending earthquakes. Not so actually, as within the above collage of pictures, however nonetheless clearly – within the modifications within the depth of cosmic rays recorded by observatories on the floor of our planet. (Supply: IFJ PAN/NASA/JSC)

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