mannequin.power/future

2024-01-23 14:49:58

Introduction

This web site simulates how a future fully-renewable energy system
would behave with immediately’s demand and climate. Right here is the precise wind and photo voltaic technology from the previous 10 days in Germany:

Within the eventualities under the wind and photo voltaic technology is scaled as much as
projected capacities for a completely renewable system.

The feed-in of wind, photo voltaic, current hydroelectricity, batteries and
hydrogen storage is optimised to fulfill demand. The mannequin can solely see 24 hours forward. The long-term hydrogen
storage is dispatched assuming a relentless hydrogen worth (e.g. 80 €/MWh_LHV).

Warning: This web site is a thought-experiment for academic functions, not a forecast. Please see all other warnings.

Presently the web site solely works for Germany as an island system with immediately’s demand. Additional features will observe quickly!

Discover eventualities

Click on on situation for full particulars.

What can we be taught?

Regardless of the many limitations of those simulations, right here are some things we are able to be taught (not an exhaustive record – additionally be aware that the mannequin outcomes rely strongly on enter assumptions):

Programs dominated by wind and photo voltaic can meet demand in all hours if there may be ample short- and long-term storage.
Wind may be very useful in excessive latitudes to get via the winter intervals when the solar shines much less.
There are multi-day intervals with low wind and photo voltaic output. To bridge these, batteries, pumped hydroelectricity and short-term demand-side administration are too costly. Longer-term storage (on this instance: hydrogen) might help regardless of the excessive losses, since it’s used sometimes.
Foresight of 24 hours is ample to dispatch the system. Lengthy-term storage will be dispatched utilizing heuristics for the worth of hydrogen. That is just like how water values are used to dispatch hydroelectricity-dominated methods immediately.
Costs are sometimes set by the worth of hydrogen, each when hydrogen generators are price-setting as provide and when hydrogen electrolysers are price-setting as demand.
Costs drop to zero in uncommon conditions when wind and photo voltaic provide exceeds all versatile demand.
Market costs are extra unstable than costs immediately on a day-to-day foundation, but in addition do not behave radically in a different way. Costs on this methods don’t rely on world markets for fossil fuels.
Whereas the entire system can recuperate most of its prices from the market costs, it’s exhausting for the peaking hydrogen generators to recuperate their prices with out some load shedding or a generator of final resort (e.g. based mostly on imported gas). This is similar state of affairs as in standard energy methods.

Technical particulars

The mannequin is up to date as soon as a day to take account of the most recent day’s knowledge.

The mannequin has been run at some point at a time from 2015 up till the current day to protect the restricted 24-hour-ahead foresight.

The demand time sequence are based mostly on the community load (Netzlast) from SMARD. This time sequence is then corrected upwards based mostly on yearly knowledge from AG Energiebilanzen e.V. in order that it equals the sum of internet technology and imports minus exports.

For the photo voltaic PV, wind onshore, wind offshore and hydroelectric technology, the technology time sequence are taken from SMARD. Since they do not mirror all turbines (significantly for hydroelectricity, but in addition for photo voltaic PV), they’re corrected by yearly correction elements based mostly on the web technology statistics from AG Energiebilanzen e.V.. For the present yr, the earlier yr’s correction issue is used. You’ll be able to take a look at the correction factors.

This correction scheme for load and technology follows the Agorameter.

The time sequence are then scaled right down to per unit time sequence utilizing the historic capacities reported by energy-charts, earlier than being scaled again as much as their projected capacities.

Deliberate extra options are listed on the GitHub issue tracker.

Warnings

Presently the web site has many limitations. It’s only a prototype; it can enhance over time (see planned features). Essential limitations and their results embrace:

Germany is presently handled as an island; no exchanges of electrical energy or hydrogen are allowed with different international locations. Stress-free this situation would decrease prices by 10-25%.
Community constraints and redispatch prices inside Germany are ignored. Together with community bottlenecks would increase prices.
Energy storage utilizing hydrogen isn’t but carried out at scale wherever, though MW-scale electrolysers and GWh-scale hydrogen underground storage exist. Research is still ongoing to develop 100+-MW-scale pure hydrogen generators which have each good effectivity and low NOx emissions. Different storage mediums akin to methanol storage with carbon cycling may be engaging.
In actuality the worth of hydrogen may change seasonally, like pure gasoline does, and in addition be affected by different hydrogen calls for (e.g. in trade) and hydrogen commerce.
Demand flexibility for standard electrical energy demand is proscribed to demand elasticity in some eventualities. Electrolysers and batteries cost based mostly on market indicators.
Potential new calls for like warmth pumps, electrical autos and hydrogen for trade usually are not but carried out.
Current biomass electrical energy technology isn’t included, as a result of biomass ought to be restricted to sustainable sources and prioritised for sectors like industrial feedstocks and long-distance aviation reasonably than electrical energy.
The long run results of local weather change on climate usually are not thought of.
Brief-term forecasting errors, balancing prices and different ancilliary companies are ignored.
Different technology applied sciences, akin to geothermal, nuclear, fossil fuels with CCS, wave, photo voltaic in area, and so forth., usually are not included.
Different storage applied sciences, akin to iron-air batteries, and so forth., may decrease prices.
Scaling up current wind profiles will underestimate yields, as a result of new generators obtain increased capability elements than the common current turbine (e.g. due to increased hub heights).
Alternatively, areas for added wind and photo voltaic generators might have decrease wind speeds and insolation than the websites used immediately.
Rising wake results for offshore wind with rising capability are ignored.

Different web sites that served as an inspiration

Contributors & acknowledgements

Tom Brown conceived and developed the web site.
The Open Energy Tracker staff (Wolf-Peter Schill, Alex Roth, Felix Schmidt and Adeline Gueret) helped with some early brainstorming.
David Osmond, creator of live simulations for highly renewable Australia, supplied a number of precious suggestions.
Mirko Schäfer of the Albert-Ludwigs-Universität Freiburg, Katharina Hartz of Agora Energiewende and Leonhard Probst of Fraunhofer ISE helped perceive the required corrections to the time sequence.
Michael Lindner, Toni Seibold, Iegor Riepin, Goran Tkalec, Max Parzen, Gunnar Luderer and Philipp Glaum supplied useful basic suggestions.

Software program and knowledge licence

The open supply code on GitHub is launched underneath the GNU Affero Normal Public Licence (AGPL) Model 3.0. The open enter knowledge from SMARD is launched underneath the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Licence (CC BY). All output knowledge accessible on this web site can be accessible underneath the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Licence (CC BY).

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